Wednesday, 16 April 2008

Am I going mad?

Just had a little look at the League Table. I must be going mad, but I still think we can do it.

I'm not saying I think we will do, of course, but we are not out of it. The following is the four (as I see it) teams that are potential play off candidates aiming for that sixth place. I have ignored the teams below us as if they can make it then so can we, and if we don't make it I don't about the teams below us.

Pos Team Pld GD Pts
6 Palace 43 10 65
7 Ipswich 43 8 64
8 Wolves 42 1 62
9 Charlton 43 6 61

Please excuse the formatting

Now I know that makes it look a bit difficult, and with Wolves' game in hand it could mean that there are two teams with four points more than us with three games to go, however the remaining fixures are as follows:

Saturday, 19 April 2008
QPR v Charlton
Watford v Crystal Palace
Wolverhampton v Ipswich

Tuesday, 22 April 2008
Wolverhampton v Cardiff

Saturday, 26 April 2008
Barnsley v Charlton
Coventry v Wolverhampton
Hull v Crystal Palace
Preston v Ipswich

Sunday, 04 May 2008
Charlton v Coventry
Crystal Palace v Burnley
Ipswich v Hull
Wolverhampton v Plymouth

Let's assume the following:
Palace lose at Watford and Hull;
Ipswich lose at Preston;
Wolves lose at Coventry and only draw at home to Cardiff (I know not very likely); and
We win at QPR and at Barnsley (none of this works unless we win those two games).

I'm going to assume that all games are settled by one goal or it gets silly to extrapolate.

That leaves a table that looks like:

Pos Team Pld GD Pts
6 Charlton 45 8 67
7 Palace 45 8 65
8 Ipswich 44 7 64
9 Wolves 44 0 63

With the result of Wolves and Ipswich to be added that still leaves us in with a shout when we play Coventry. Assuming we beat QPR and Barnsley - two teams who's season is over (Barnsley may well still need a point or two in ten days time, but I doubt it).

Assuming that Ipswich don't beat Hull (sadly at home) on the last day of the season it could well be in our own hands.

Sadly I think Palace will get something at either Hull or Watford, and will beat Burnley at home on the last day of the season. I also think that Wolves will pick up more than one point at Coventry and at home to Cardiff, but it does suddenly make me feel like it is not all over.

Maybe I'm going mad, maybe it's got something to do with the sun shinning on Kings Hill this afternoon, but maybe, just maybe, the spring is bringing new life into our promotion campaign.

So that makes QPR a must win, but why not? QPR are the highest placed team that cannot make the playoffs now, and due to the teams at the bottom having to play each other they cannot be relegated either. Well if that's not a 'mid table team' I don't know what is. Then Barnsley away, who can make themselves safe with a win over Leicester this Saturday. I can't think of a better time to play them than when they have just secured safety. It could well happen you know, it really could.

Anyway all that aside, I still think we will be in this division next season, but for the first time in weeks I am considering the possibility that we might two or three extra games to come in May.

I am going mad aren't I?


charlton north-downs said...

Sadly you are Kings Hill but I mean that in the nicest possible way. The Wolves game could haunt us until May 2009.

Chicago Addick said...


Anonymous said...

I kinda see where you're coming from KH. But i gave up on this season about six weeks ago.
So, yup you're going mad!

Dave said...

It would be worth a fiver at 50-1.