Next... Southampton at home

Since I wrote my review of the QPR game a lot seems to have happened.

I have been to France on a booze cruise - except I didn't bring much booze back; We have lost to QPR in another game that resembles the last two away games under Pardew (great stats and 'effort' but no win); Woolworth's have gone into administration; We have signed another two players on loan; all sorts of horrors have been happening in Mumbai; and we have off loaded the striker that scored both the goals scored against Palace in February, and the first goal that my son witnessed.

Ignoring the non-Charlton items in that list, I can't help but thing that the most significant in that list is the 'sale' of Luke Varney. Parkinson suggests "...Luke needed a change of scenery to kickstart his career and it was a chance for the club to recoup a large chunk of the transfer fee paid out for him." A large chunk? What constitutes a large chunk? The fee is to be 'undisclosed'. In our current financial plight would £500,000 be a large chunk? Would £250,000? Does he mean a large percentage of the original fee? Does that mean £1m plus? The fact that he is being sold now - and may well be the only player out for a fee in January - makes it difficult not to assume that the money received for him will be used in the managerial change. I am not going to go as far as to suggest that the money will end up in the bank account of a certain Mr Pardew, but one could argue that the £2m (plus) he paid for him is the actual price of letting the manager go.

I will not fester or go on about the financial implications, but I am happy to say that I'm glad to see the back of Luke Varney. I could well at some point find myself comparing him to Big Chris who is having the time of his life at Wolves, but I just don't think Varney has justified his existence at Charlton at all. The comments from Pardew in the summer, a full twelve months after he got here, that he had at long last started wearing the right jeans said it all really. The lad clearly failed to settle into his new life style. That might be an issue with him being too young at 24 to move away from his family; he might not have adapted to being so rich (relative to his Crewe days - remember he was signed from non league so was probably one of the less well off Alexandra players); he might have found the increased press attention associated with promotion favourites to be too high. What ever the reasons he clearly failed (miserably) to live up to the expectations that we all had for him when he signed for £2m - £2.5m. I don't necessarily blame the player for that, and I don't get the feeling that he was responsible for what he cost us, nor did he ever have an adverse attitude. He just couldn't do the business on the field, and for that reason I'm glad he is no longer on our wage bill.

I think that some managers (in all walks of life) make decisions that do not work out, yet feel afraid of admitting their mistake for fear of increasing the pressure on them. Pardew has been good at 'taking in on the chin' and did drop Varney at the end, but I can't help feeling that it is easier for Parkinson to sell him at a loss that it would have been for his predecessor. It reminds me of the situation with Francis Jeffers. The truth is that you can only make decisions based on where you are. The mistake is not (I hope) the sale of Varney for less than we paid, the mistake was paying £2m for him, or even signing him in the first place. However I think the right decision has been made now.

For the record I was underwhelmed when we signed Big Chris, but I was impressed with what he provided and was a little sorry to see him leave, all be it that the fee received was a benefit and a huge profit as he signed on a free.

So the two new loans will presumably be involved on Saturday. With the restriction of only five being allowed to be involved at a time and the loan deadline it is, of course, possible that they have been signed with a slightly more long term view. I would expect to see both the loan wingers play and I think Primus is a bit of a certainty. I was, personally, disappointed to see Craine back in at full back, but it has to be said that with Mou2 having his first decent run in the side coincide with our worst run since we were relegated it was hardly something I could complain about.

I remember seeing Deon Burton play and score for Derby in the Premier League then Jim Smith came out and made comments that raised some doubt about his attitude. Something that has been borne out a little with him having had 11 clubs. However, he might just be able to provide something between now and the end of the season. On the basis that we are looking for just enough to finish above three clubs that requirement may well be limited, and two goals and two assists could be worth 8 points, which might make a huge difference come May.

The left back slot has been a problem for us this season, and Pardew did say that Youga was one bad performance away from being dropped, and he hasn't looked very impressive in the last two games, so a replacement was to be expected. Just how good McEveley will be is a moot point as he couldn't get into the first team of a side that think Luke Varney is the answer. However, I think he will play, and even if it only gives Youga a bit of a rest it can't be a bad think. Quite what Grant Basey has done wrong I don't know, but maybe his time will come.

I feel inclined to give Parkinson a run of games to see if his influence (including the players he's brought in) can provide us the lift we need. I do still have reservations about his role with Pardew, but on the basis that I can not influence the decision either way I'm happy to let things carry on as they are for now, while reserving the right to complain about it later if it goes wrong.

So a home game against a genuine relegation candidate. Sounds a bit like Barnsley. Strangely enough since we played them Barnsley seem to have carved out an eight point lead over the drop zone. On the basis that we have not won back to back league games for eleven and a half months (ignoring the close season) I think you can assume that it is going to take us at least four games to secure 8 points - and probably more like six - Barnsley are looking very safe now.

Southampton have not lost for two games, including a win at Reading. I'm going to suggest that we will lose tomorrow, not by much, but by enough to make our plight a little worse.

I hope I'm wrong, but right now I just cannot see us winning another game this year. Looking at the fixtures there isn't a match that I'm confident of securing three points.

Never the less I will be there tomorrow, as will my Dad, who has been away for a few weeks. Maybe he'll bring us that little bit of luck that we so clearly need, maybe he won't.

Up the Addicks!

Next... QPR away

With the benefit of another 24 hours to digest what has happened, and the signing of Keith Gillespie, which we've been assured was Parkinson's signing, I am feeling a bit more upbeat about tonight's game.

If you assume that we would probably have lost tonight and on Saturday if Pardew had stayed in charge then we have two potential 'bonus balls' as Curbishley used to call them. He was referring, of course, to Man Utd and Arsenal away, but the principle is the same. I have long believed that, despite the weaknesses of the players in our care, we are a much better side with more confidence. It's an ironic truism that you need confidence to win games, and you need to win games to build confidence. It often only takes the slightest bit of luck and that spiral can change. As New York Addick suggested, one of those moments occurred when Varney failed to score a winner at home to Burnley, the potential of which could mean the end of his career with us. Another one was the flapping of Perez before Richard Rufus scored his first goal for us.

With luck (sorry) we will get a bit of luck tonight. It may be a goal line clearance, it may be a suspect refereeing decision, but if we can come away from Loftus Road with either a point or a clean sheet (I know that latter guarantees the former), we could get that lift for Saturday. I am happy to accept that we probably need more on Saturday than tonight, but both games provide a chance to increase our points total, and more importantly our confidence.

Parkinson has already said in his press conference that all he is focusing on is QPR. I am not a fan of football cliches, but they only exist because they are so right. His financial future is probably safe for now, and his long term reputation will be unharmed if he is in charge of us for a short period with limited success. So we all have little to lose.

In the event that Parkinson can motivate (or get lucky with) the squad and pick up some points I am more than happy to have him in situ for the rest of the season. I would even be happy to give him a season to see what he can do with time. My only caveat is that a permanent replacement needs to be ready to come in if it transpires by the middle of next month that our fortunes are not going to improve.

A week is a long time in football and by Saturday evening we could find ourselves three and four points above two of the teams we are currently chasing. We could also find ourselves eight and nine behind them. It is worth noting that despite going to Bristol City tonight, Watford entertain Doncaster on Saturday, so they are likely to get something this week.

I managed just once to accurately predict Pardew's team selection in 23 months, so I doubt I will get anywhere near tonight, but if we assume that Gillespie is going to play, Sam is likely to be dropped. Sometimes Lloyd Sam looks like he is really going to make it, then other times he looks like he is never going to. I would suggest that the next ten games are not going to be for the faint hearted, or the inconsistent. I would rather see a limited player that you can rely on 100% than an enigma. Sadly, I have little idea what many of the players we has signed can offer with an extended run in the side. Izale McLeod's video on You Tube when we signed him made him look like the next Darren Bent. In sixteen months he has made just 8 starts; Racon has in the same time made 5 starts, Todorov, the player that Pardew claimed we missed last season has made 7. It is conceivable that all of that trio could play in the same team, they may even be the best three players we have.

I am well past blaming anyone for the situation we find ourselves in, but Parkinson may well have some experimenting to do of his own. Clearly he has seen the players in training, but I doubt that is as telling as a run of ten games in the first team. This leaves us back where I started. We need to rely on luck for the next few games. Parkinson needs time, the players need confidence, I need a few good nights sleep, and the points total needs to be increased. In all fairness we haven't had a lot of luck recently, so if it is true that luck evens itself out over the season could we have half a season's worth in the next three games please?

There are a number of problems facing our club at the moment. They all need to be addressed at some point, but for now let's just concentrate on picking up a few points and a bit of confidence. If we can do that I have a feeling that the rest will all start to seem a lot easier to solve.

Either way I hope that those that travel to Loftus Road tonight get to see a decent game and a winning start to a new era.

Having said that, I'd take a point, defo for sure if it comes with a clean sheet.

Up the Addicks!

Déjà vu

In November 2006 we sacked Iain Dowie believing that it couldn't get any worse. Seven games later and it was so much worse that the appointment of Alan Pardew was looked upon as both a chance to keep us up (small chance) but a manager that really knew the Championship so would bring us right back up.

Fast forward to November 2008 and we have sacked our manager believing that it can't get any worse.

It's time for me to come clean. I've never liked Alan Pardew. In fact I hated the man. Not that I ever met him, but he was a Palace player. He was also the player that scored that goal that put Liverpool out of the FA Cup in 1989. I always had a soft soft for Liverpool, and I always had a hatred of Palace.

Then he signed for us, and I didn't particularly like him as a player. He seemed like he would drift in and out of games, and never seemed to be too keen on tracking back and would fail to make tackles that I thought he should. He did score some goals for us, and one of them made my all time top ten - Southend at home the day the East stand opened.

I was happy when he left the club. The only departure that I liked as much was Darren Pitcher, but that was because he called me a "F**kin' C**t" in front of my girlfriend at the Player of the Year award do in 1993. I was pleased when I heard that his career had been cut short through injury. Even happier still when I discovered he was working on a building site - the place where calling someone a "F**king C**t" is much more acceptable than at a company dinner in front of one of your most loyal customers, and his girlfriend.

I digress.

When Pardew turned up at Reading I was a little indifferent as we were a Premier League team, and they were in the third tier of football. When he walked out to go to West Ham I just thought that it showed what sort of a man he was. Also as I hate West Ham with a passion I felt that they were right for each other. I was really in a quandary when West Ham played Palace in the play off final in 2004. On reflection I think I decided that for the good of us it was better to keep West Ham out of the Premier League. It was, however, a bad day in the Kings Hill household.

The following season I was desperate for West Ham to miss out of the play offs as I thought that could dictate a long spell in the second tier of English football for them - their rightful place in my opinion. Sadly he lucked all the way to a victory over Preston. Then a funny thing happened, I started to admire his press conferences during West Ham's FA Cup Final season. Clearly I was very happy that they lost to Liverpool. I was, again, far from being his friend when Pardew tried to sign Luke Young. Rumour was that it was his medical that stopped it. This was after he'd taken Paul Konchesky for a mere £2.5m the summer before.

When he was sacked from West Ham I suspected that they would get out of trouble. It was clear that, for whatever reason, Pardew was completely out of his depth. What Curbishley achieved there was a miracle, one which I think makes the way they treated him seem even more disgusting.

To be fair, when he came in to 'save' us I was probably pleased. Mainly because we had become a laughing stock. For obvious reasons - we had sacked their mate - the presenters on the tele hated us, and Les Reed came across so, so badly that Pardew was a huge improvement.

Now, looking back, it would seem as though all he actually achieved was a little bounce in his first half dozen games. Despite his assertions that he was very good at buying players, he has failed miserably with the ones he has bought for us. He failed to keep us up. I know it was a tough ask, but the worst that could have happened was that we went down, and that is exactly what happened. I don't blame him for it, but we cannot praise him either. We didn't even finish third from bottom, which, on reflection, might be worth millions of pounds courtesy of West Ham and Carlos Tevez.

Last season we started the campaign with arguably the best squad in the division. We spent loads of money (for a tier two team) then went on to loan four players from Premier league sides and still managed to finish eleventh.

The last chapter in this 'Thank You' to Alan Pardew is that The Sun is reporting today that he had a clause in his contract that guaranteed him £1m within 12 days of being sacked. It is ironic that Parkinson was brought in on the basis that if/when Pardew went off to manage Man Utd or England we would have a replacement in place to carry on the good work. It would seem, however, that despite his arrogance (it's much more than confidence) he thought it necessary to ensure that if he turned out to be rubbish he would be guaranteed a pay off. I am, of course, assuming that there is some truth in this story, if there is not then I apologise, in advance, for any upset that I might have caused the man that has single handed destroyed the one thing that I love the most (outside of my family).

When Dowie was sacked I was hopeful that a new manager would give us a lift, and enable us to climb out of trouble. Les Reed's first interview confirmed that he was not the man to do it. He claimed that after seeing us spanked by Reading he now had an idea where the problems were.

So we are here again. Phil Parkinson says that "Now is the time to roll our sleeves up and come out fighting". I'm not suggesting that he should have said anything else, but it sounds a bit like what Pardew has been saying. To be fair he has admitted that we are in a relegation dogfight rather then mentioning how close we are to sixth place, but I worry that if we lose the next two games, Southampton being the important one, we could well be tailed off in the bottom three and that could be too much for our squad to make up with literally no confidence at all.

So this is a crucial time for us. I believe that Parkinson is probably a good manager, but I suspect that this is not the time for him to be in charge at Charlton. It is not my call, nor is it my money, but I think that the sooner we get in a permanent replacement the more likely we will be to get out of trouble. I'm not too worried about a relegation fight, I think we have too many players in their comfort zone, financially, for the battle, but the overall quality in a few (limited) areas should be enough for us to claw out enough points to finish above Doncaster, Forrest and one other side. However, if we slip to six, or heaven forbid, nine points behind safety we could be in the same position as when Pardew arrived.

I have thought for a long time that Pardew wasn't going to get us promoted, so he had failed in his job description, but until he was relieved of his duties I didn't really think that much about what came next. The squad needs, in my view, a lot more than minor surgery. I think we have, due to our recent Premier League years, granted contracts on much more attractive terms than we should have done. I have no inside information, but I would guess that Varney, McLeod, Gray, Hudson, Fortune, ZZ, Sam, Weaver, Todorov and Holland are all earning much more than the division's average. The last two in that list were offered one year extensions last summer, and are probably not going to be here next season. I doubt that we would be able to find another club that would be willing to pay us what we laid out for them, and in the case of McLeod and Varney (and Sinclair for that matter) they are probably only good enough for the division below us, where their salaries would be obscene. I hope these players can prove me wrong, but I just don't see it happening.

Add in the fact that ZZ and Fortune can leave for free in the summer, and sign contracts in advance of that on 1st January, and it does paint a bleak picture for the new manager. Thus you would expect any new man to demand a 'sacking' clause that guarantees him compensation for the damage to his reputation if he comes in and we go down, lose our better players for nothing, and sell the rest to pay for the high wages of players that we can't offload.

Despite my optimism in recent weeks the reality, that I may have accepted a little later than most, is that we are in a real mess.

Right now I'd take forth from bottom in the second division and 10,000 season ticket sales in the summer. I wouldn't have considered that two years ago. I wouldn't have even considered considering it two years ago.

I hope that Phil Parkinson can turn things around. Sadly we need stability, but in the short term we need results. Without results Parkinson will not be given long enough to build stability. So either he gets lucky and we start winning against all the odds, or he becomes another causality of the Pardew 'Boom and Bust' philosophy.

Good luck Mr Parkinson, you are going to need it.

Up the Addicks!

Next... Sheffield United at home

I went to University in Sheffield. I had a really great year there and I made some friends that I still see on a regular basis. The degree that I came away with was, of course, the main reason for going, but the life long friendships (I finished there in 1993) were the main benefit. However, I 'adopted' Sheff Utd as my second team during that time. They were in the Premier League that season, as were Wednesday, and they were regarded as the smaller (weaker) of the two sides, and they play in red! I went to Bramall Lane a few times, I even had a tour of the ground and met Dave Basset (their manager at the time) so I was very happy for them to be my 'local' team for a year.

Today, following the behaviour of Warnock, I find that my affection (if that's the right word) has dwindled. The way he, and therefore, the club conducted themselves in the public arena during their recent Premier League season left a bitter taste in my mouth. I'm not talking about the Tevez affair, I'm referring to his constant whining and complaining about referees etc.

Anyway, that aside, I would still rather have them do well in the absence of Charlton's interests being affected, but tomorrow we could really do with a win ourselves.

From what I've read we gave a very good account of ourselves at Plymouth and especially Birmingham and could, nay should, have won them both. All good news I'm sure. Sadly I fear that we might have stumbled across this 'formula' by accident rather than by design. In all honesty, despite Pardew's suggestions to the contrary, we are not in a challenge for promotion now this season, we are in a relegation fight, and stumbling upon a successful 'formula' by luck is probably all we need to avoid Tier Three. If we were really hoping for top six then we would need to be able to 'make things happen' rather than just keep changing things until it seems to work, but we are now aiming for fifth from bottom on the basis that if we miss it by one place it's no disaster.

As for what happens moving forward, it looks like it will be loans, loans, loans. I don't like this approach particularly, but if we assume that the board are considering Pardew's future while keeping it from us fans, then allowing him to spend money on permanent transfers would be illogical. The good things about loan players is that if a new manager comes in and doesn't rate them he can just send them back. Something tells mew that if we could send Varney back to Crewe for a refund of the £2m we paid for him, and have no obligation to pay his wages any more we would do so. The same logic could probably also be used for McLeod, Christensen, Sinclair and to a smaller degree Andy Gray. If any of those players had been on loan with us for half a season before we bought them we would probably not have paid out for them.

That is all part of the game, of course, but to allow your manager to take those type of gambles - and to be fair to Pardew, he has had some successes too - you need to be sure that he is going to be around long term.

Anyway that has all been covered way too much elsewhere. I am approaching tomorrow's game as I did towards the end of last season, a game of football that we will try to win that will not have any significant impact on the rest of our season. Clearly every game is a potential three points, but if we are going to finish fifth from bottom then anything against Sheffield United is a bonus, even at home.

Having said that I have a funny feeling that we will give a good performance tomorrow, and assuming we can keep them out for the first fifteen minutes or so we should be able to take the game to them a bit more. Iberian Valley author Nelson has already done an analysis of this and it would seem that if we score first we are in for a good day - concede first and it is probably not going to be a Happy Valley.

Thus I have a plan. Let's score first.

See, it's easy. All that fuss about Pardew and his tinkering, his 'formulas', his 'nous' and his 'mental and physical strength'. All you need is to score first. How hard can that be?

Well, on the basis that we have conceded first in our last seven games I guess it's a bit 'tricky' as my my four year old son would say. Quite what the relationship between scoring opening goals and defeating Darth Vader on the PS3 is I don't know, but I'm sure 'tricky' is a good word.

As my Dad is away again I will be going to The Valley on my own on Saturday. I think I have already mentioned my motivation for going to football. It's a social thing that I do with my Dad, and the day is not the same when I go on my own. I have read a lot about season ticket holders deciding not to go to games, and clearly it's true when you look at the number of empty seats. So this week I have caught myself thinking about whether I am going to go or not. My wife and I are going to a Ball at our Son's school tomorrow evening. It's one of those fund raising things, and the school is, apparently, 21 years old. Anyway I will need to get home from football, run through the shower, get dressed up like James Bond and leave in about fifteen minutes. It would be much easier to pass on the game, watch it on Sky Sports News and have a leisurely shower before going out to take on Gold Finger.

Then I remembered that I am a Charlton Fan. I don't only go when we are winning, I don't only go when Man Utd come to The Valley. I just go.

So when I steal a quick look in the mirror as I run past I'll be thinking to myself "Addick. Kings Hill Addick, Lishense to kill" while my own Money Penny will be at the bottom of the stairs yelling "I told you you didn't have time to go to football now hurry up, we're going to be late!"

Not going? Who was I fooling?

Up the Addicks!

CAFC TV

I remember when MUFC TV appeared on my Sky TV guide. I was so jealous! I know they are a much bigger club than us, but they had their own tv channel that would show interviews, features, highlights and everything, all day long!

Well, now we have one, and Man Utd's is £6 a month (I think) where as ours is only £35 a year. What's more you can't have a sneaky look at MUFC TV from your office desk, where as you can with our web based 'tv channel'.

So it's all good then?

Well, yes actually. I know it means I have to stump up another £35, and as I would never entertain allowing my Dad to use my password I can't share that cost, but for what you get you'd be mad not to.

Now I'm not saying that the sales people should go and increase the fee, we are in a recession and all that, but when you think I paid £30 to go to Selhurst Park (plus travel etc.) I think this is good value for money.

My only reservation is that should we storm into the Premier League in May I might not have access to much next season, and my annual subscription runs until, strangely enough, 12th November 2009. However, I'm not going to lose much sleep over that as I don't really think that is very likely, and even if it happens, I'll have a free season ticket so I won't care too much. Of course, I'll also have the benefit of watching Charlton in the Premier League, so it's all win, win, win.

Clearly there is not much in the way of interviews on there yet, but then to be fair, they only started five minutes ago. I just can't wait. All this for less than the price of twelve programs.

You just can't go wrong.

And then there was one

The title of this was going to be "And then there was none", but despite how I tried to massage the figures I couldn't quite get there.

What am I talking about?

Jonathan Fortune
Zheng Zhi
Lloyd Sam
Kelly Youga
Martin Christensen
Matt Holland

That list are the only survivors from our Premier League days. Of that list only Matt Holland was signed for a fee and has played in the first team in the Premier League. There is also a question as whether any of them would be good enough for the Premier League, although I suspect that the first two on the list could end up there next season if they are available on a free transfer in June.

Thus the point of this is that with the sale of Darren Ambrose we now have just a 34 year old in our squad that we signed (for a fee) in the Premier League. This is probably not such a bad thing, I mean, after all, we are not in the Premier League, and don't expect to be there again anytime soon.

The wages that Darren Ambrose was earning are almost certainly too high for the division he is playing in, and in my view, he has found his level. I guess he, like the rest of us at the moment, has to accept that the plentiful days are gone. I could be wrong of course. Ipswich may see something in the next two months that will tempt them to offer him Premier League wages in our division, but I doubt it. I also have a few concerns that if the permanent deal is not already signed, and the loan is a technicality to enable him to move outside of the transfer window, he could be back in January. For this reason I am reluctant to be too critical of him.

Having said that.....

My personal view of Darren Ambrose is that he was expected to develop more than he did, both at Newcastle and with us. The return he gave is probably below what we have received from other players (pound for pound) but more than some. As New York Addick pointed out Francis Jeffers, Marcus Bent and Dennis Rommedhal all provided a lot less for a lot more money, and they also made it clear that they thought little of the club.

What Darren Ambrose thought of Charlton is unclear, but his PR has been good. One could argue that on relegation he was unlikely to secure a better financial package by leaving, and could have always intended to run his contract down and leave on a Bosman. However, he was the only (or one of a small few) player(s) that came out and committed himself to a season of trying to win promotion.

Overall I have a few disappointing memories of Darren Ambrose, but I also have a few great memories. I fear that it could be a few years before we sign another England U21 international, and we may well have a lack of the real class that he showed from time to time. It is, however, really sad that the best thing I can think he brought to Charlton was an association with another Darren who subsequently signed for us in the summer on 2005. I have no idea if Darren Bent's decision to join us was influenced by his long term friend, but I can't help thinking that if it was, the transfer fee we paid to Newcastle for Ambrose was well worth the money.

We now all wait with baited breath to see who the replacement will be. It could be argued that we are more in need of a regular goalscorer, than a lightweight utility player that seems to be a jack of all trades, and a master of none, across the midfield. Time will tell, but in the meantime I would like to wish Darren Ambrose all the best for the rest of his career. Despite what he did (or didn't) bring to our team I never felt that he gave less than his all. He was not a tackler and he was asked to play in various positions that were not his best, but I think he was a good professional. Even if he wasn't ultimately worth what he was costing us, he did, I believe, do his best.

Up the Addicks!

The board back Pardew

Not being shy at completely changing my mind when it suits me I am about to surprise a few people with my latest best plan.

I have little knowledge of running a football club. I have limited experience of management in business, and I think having a team (players or managers) that are independently wealthy is different again.

I have made it clear that I have lost confidence in Alan Pardew, I still believe that the fortunes of the first team would be better served with a new direction, but I am willing to give the board the benefit of doubt.

I have a small reservation about the board's motives. if they just want rid of the club now due to the increasing financial burden then maybe keeping Pardew is the cheapest option until they get out. However, having met Richard Murray and read Derek Chappell's comments on Charlton Live I don't think they would do harm to the club, and are probably looking to sell so that the new owners can invest what we need that they are not able to provide.

Thus I have to assume that there is another reason that they have given Pardew their backing - including agreeing to sign further players on loan. A two minute brainstorming session brings up the following list of reasons that they may be considering:

1> The price of removing Pardew would cost money we just don't have;
2> The board have made (secret) enquiries about replacements and come up with nothing; or
3> They've seen something that the fans haven't - either in training or in meetings etc.

Let me expand on those a little. Point 1 is obvious. These chaps have put lots of their money into the club and it is clear that the cost of removing Pardew will have to come from a cash injection. I'm not just talking about the severance pay, I'm talking about the recruitment costs of the replacement. Unless we want a manager out of work we will have to pay compensation to the club he is currently employed by. Chances are that any unemployed 'Big Name' - Hoddle, Allardyce, Curbishley et. al.- will want a lump sum or a long term contract. This is before we calculate the cost of the new man wanting to remove Parkinson and possibly Kinsella and bring in his own team that will also need to be 'recruited'. There is also the possibility that the new man will want to sign players and if the only option is sell before you buy we could lose our best players at knock down prices to make that change.

I think point 2 is, again, simple enough. I have no idea, but if Curbishley has been approached (for example) and said "No chance", and the agents of other replacements have made it clear that they would prefer to stay away, what can we do. Clearly if you offer enough money you can have anyone you like, but what would it cost to tempt a millionaire football manager to dirty his hands with a relegation fight, no money for transfers, a very demotivated team with no confidence and, let's face it, an unhappy group of fans who have expectations well above their station and are happy to boo their manager, and have, in fact, called for the sacking of the last two? I know this goes back to point one, but it's still a factor. The quality of an out of work manager that will take us on has to be assumed to low.

The third point relates to Pardew as well as Parkinson and Kinsella. The board may see something in Pardew that we fans do not. Either way they are in a better position to judge Parkinson and Kinsella. I have no idea if under good conditions (let alone the mess we are currently in) either of these two men would be able to produce the goods for Charlton, but if the board have few (or no) outside candidates then they have to consider promoting from within. Despite the Les Reed spectacle, I think promoting from within can be a success. The board will have had contact with the two obvious internal candidates and may doubt them. We have no idea, but to do nothing can be the least risky option when you are not confident of the alternatives. Better the devil you know? This is, of course, assuming that either of them would be willing to put their reputations on the line and risk ending up being the next Les Reed?

Over all I am not able, either with this blog or by my behaviour at The Valley, to force the board to act. Maybe if the pressure continues to grow Pardew will have to go. Maybe that is the best way forward, but if the board are determined to keep him (at least for now) we could cause more damage in the short term by destroying the manager's ability to raise confidence in an already fragile group of players.

I also have to confess that I am beginning to feel like part of a witch hunt. I'm confident that the fans only want what is best for the club, but we could be wrong. It is possible that, as horrendous a thought as it is, Pardew is the very best option based on what I have described above (and other things that I've not even thought of). Even if his departure is the correct way forward, I think that the board know how the fans think and continuing to raise the level of 'hate' against a man that is clearly doing his best is just not something I want to be part of.

Thus, for now, I am going to revert to Plan A. I'm going to believe, no hope, no pray that we can turn it around. I'm going to embrace the new loan players and give them (and the current ones) all the support that I can. I'm going to cross my fingers and toes and ram my head in a hole of sand in the ground. At the end of the day there is not much more I can do. The board will make the decision, and they probably don't even read my blog anyway.

I'm not leaving the Redvolution behind, and what will be will be, but in the meantime I will be looking for positives; I will be looking for reasons to be cheerful; I will be acting like the quintessential Charlton fan.

Up the Addicks!

Charlton 1 - 3 Barnsley

Well it wasn't good was it?

To be fair to Pardew there is not much you can do if you go a goal down after two minutes, and the second, like the first, came from a set piece. His suggestion that we were missing someone big and strong at the back is more than credible, after all the third goal came from a free header at the back post.

What worries me though is that it was no surprise to me that Barnsley looked to take advantage of set pieces. After the money that has been spent, particularly on forwards that don't seem to be able to score, we shouldn't be needing to rely on a 35 year old, half fit defender that we only have on loan for three months.

Ambrose was probably at fault for the second goal, but it was evident again yesterday that our biggest failing is our inability to win the second ball. The first two goals came from our inability to clear the ball after we had won the initial header. I have to assume that this must be due to the players not carrying out their duties properly. Then you have to ask yourself if that is because Pardew gives them the wrong instructions, fails to teach/coach them properly, or do they just ignore him.

Both of Macken's goals were well taken but there was clearly a lack of defending on the edge of the box. I have read in various places that Curbishley was obsessive with directives. He would tell all the players exactly where to stand for all different types of situations. The current side seem to be allowed to make that call for themselves. This causes the lack of cohesion that often means that we will win the tackle, then fail to get the second ball. Some teams have so much quality that they can be allowed to play how they want to because they are just too good for the opposition. Maybe West Ham and Reading were a little bit like that, but we are not.

In this modern day everything needs to be catered for. Nothing can be allowed to chance. I think we have allowed way to much to chance and are where we are as a result. Thus either Pardew needs to go and we need to replace him with someone that is much more organised, or we need to bring someone in to work alongside him. I remember the boring disciplined football that Curbishley served up in his last season. We had started that season on fire, but when we lost the creativity we had won games with, he changed things around and we clawed out goalless draws and won close games 1-0. That kept us up in his last season. It was not pretty, but it worked. I seriously doubt that Pardew has the skill set for a campaign like that. The evidence at West Ham is that when the going gets tough he doesn't have the acumen to turn it around.

Pardew thinks that the answer is another loan player. I have played many football games on the computer or the PlayStation, and the answer is normally to get in better players. I'm no football manager, although in the virtual reality of computer games I can hold my own, but in the real world we have seen that approach fail miserably. Maybe it's a bit unfair but it is beginning to look like that is all Pardew has in his locker. When things go wrong he changes the players, when he has run out of players in his squad to bring in he signs more players. If you follow this approach in the end you will either find a winning formula (Reading) or you will run out of time and get sacked (West Ham). The outcome of this season could well define Pardew's career and his financial security. Sure he has earned some serious money, but I doubt he has saved much of it (few of us do) so he can probably not afford to walk away from us and never work again. So the pressure on him right now is massive, and when that happens we all tend to go back to what we know best - in Pardew's case he 'needs' more players.

I can't think of any of the players that are better for Pardew's tutoring. He doesn't seem to bring the best out of players neither in long term development or match by match motivation. The young players in our squad have developed on loan then after a run in our side they seem to go backwards.

All in all I have serious doubts as to the long term benefits of having appointed Pardew back in December 2006. Not that I was anything but vocal in my praise of the decision at the time. Clearly I have the hindsight to be able to make that bold statement now, but it is difficult to come to any conclusion other than that we are further away from starting a season in the Premier League now than we were when Pardew arrived. I'm not blaming the manager for all that, but sadly we have got further away from that goal almost every month since the start of 2007. Relegation this season is unthinkable, but genuinely possible.

The long term future of this great club will, I believe, be determined by the season ticket sales next summer. Already the club (I'm deliberately avoiding pointing the blame at the manager, board or the admin staff) has instilled huge resentment by making the bold statements about the free season ticket before going on to sell players. Even if we avoid relegation this season I think many of those paying customers will not be willing to buy a season ticket at the current price structure (still one of the lowest in our division). If relegation, or even a serious threat of it next season, is a factor then we could be in real trouble. It is no wonder the board were so willing to recommend the Zabeel offer. If things carry on as they are that £20m debt (most of it to the current directors) will have to be written off.

I think it is probably time for us to accept what Richard Murray (and I) was keen to deny in the summer of 2006. Frankly just about all of our success in the last fifteen years has been down to Alan Curbishley. I don't need hindsight to say that I was more than happy with the dire football that kept us in the Premier League, or the collapse that we ended our season with once safety was pretty much guaranteed. I am fed up with continuing to say that I will give Pardew until Christmas as I am convinced that by then it will be too late. I am assuming, of course, that things don't improve between now and then.

I know this will not be popular, but at the Bloggers meeting in June Richard Murray said that he still regards Curbishley as a friend, and still talks to him from time to time. I think we should be approaching Curbishley to see if he wants to come back. Maybe, ironically, as a Director of Football. Maybe he could add something to Pardew's management team; maybe he could replace Pardew's management team.

Either way I think the time for bringing in new faces to the playing squad is gone. Pardew has been given, I believe, massive support from the club. We have spent more on players than just about every other team in this division; we have taken more loan players from Premier League clubs than just about every other team in this division; we have not looked like getting anywhere near the top two positions in this league since 2007; we haven't won back to back league games for eleven months.

I may be wrong, I often am, but I now believe that if the board do not act soon (immediately would be my preference) they will have missed what could be the last chance for Charlton Athletic FC to avoid a decade in the wilderness. We have players on Premier League wages that are not good enough for the Championship; we have five of our senior players on contracts that end in the summer; we will probably have to sell just about everything that has a value to continue to pay those players whose wages are so high we literally can't give them away.

A new face, an improvement on the field, and a genuine belief that next season will be better are the minimum requirements that will be needed to sell enough season tickets to keep this club afloat. I must reiterate that I am not blaming Pardew but I believe that, like many of the players he has signed, he doesn't have the ability to get us out of trouble.

I'm sad to have nothing more encouraging to say, but I fear that without a change we are far from rock bottom. Dreams of returning to the Premier League have now been replaced with fears of relegation, administration and who knows what else?

I am now ready to join the Redvolution.

Up the Addicks!