Saturday, 26 February 2011

Notts County 1 - 0 Charlton

The problem with luck is that, by definition, it is random. You can't rely on luck - well you can but you can't make accurate predictions, unless you're lucky, or course.

I have worked in Financial Services for years, most of it, like, I guess, most industries requires an element of 'sales'. If not sales than clients to transact business with. One can be very skilled with one's job, but with no clients there is little work to be done, or money to be earned. I have heard this quaint little phrase many times "You make your own luck". what a load of rubbish. That's sales talk for we can't give you more business chaps so just make it happen. It is interesting to note that those that earn ten times more than their peers are not ten times better, just ten times luckier. It all depends on who just happens to pick up 'that' call.

Anyway, I'm getting a bit off topic. The truth is that since the summer break-up of our Championship (I clearly mean division not league winning) side we have been lucky when we've won and when the luck deserted us we have lost or drawn.

I know we had good wins at Swindon and Peterborough, but I think two good wins out of thirty look more like luck than form or class.

So, we had Parkinson put together a squad with peanuts, then we proceeded to have poor games that we won, and a combination of luck that led to an extended run undefeated. Basically we are in a very poor league and still we don't seem to be able to beat the teams in the division without luck. Parkinson's luck ran out and he lost his job. I'm not saying I disagree with this outcome, by the way, just noting the relevance of luck.

In fact the biggest slice of luck Parkinson had on that eleven game unabated run was that we played teams from lower divisions on no fewer than five times. In fact, not only were we not good enough to be convincing to beat teams in our division, we needed five games to record three wins over Barnet, Luton and Southend. Only one of those games was won by more than one goal, and that was Luton away as we deserved to lose.

Chris Powell looks like he had his whole season's luck in his first four games. I have already made a comment about the first four games being lucky and us losing the opportunity to push on from there. With three straight defeats (something I believe Parkinson never suffered with us in this division) we look like we have learned little and progressed even less.

I know we don't have much of a decent squad, but the board seem to believe that with the right coaching this is a good enough side to get us out of this division. The four win streak, combined with real strengthening in January would have given us a real shot at the automatic promotion places. However, for what ever reason we have not invested in the squad anywhere near enough. I don't know why we haven't brought in the quality we needed, nor do I really care (at this point) but the fact remains that we have a side that seems unable to win in the terrible decision unless we are lucky.

That suggests that we should be preparing ourselves for an even longer stay in this division. Sure, we can still make the playoffs, and once in them we can win them with nothing more than luck. The problem with luck is that it is random.

I am more than happy to be nothing more than lucky, just as long as the luck doesn't desert us, but in the end it always seems to.

The loan signings are going to have to be an instant success. I'm guessing the chances of players that can make enough impact being available for the run in are slim.

We can only hope.

Otherwise we are facing a third season in this division. My view is that if a club spends three seasons in one division then they definitely deserve to be there. All the talk about us being a big club, or punching below our weight will be confirmed as rubbish, in my view, if we are here for three seasons.

It is time for the board to wake up and realise that getting out of this division is not as easy as appointing an old favourite player and giving him a couple of players to add to a below average squad. Michael Slater mentioned Bobby Robson and Brian Clough. I seriously doubt either of those managers, in their pomp, would be able to get this team winning convincingly.

We need change, and we need it now.

Or, of course, we need more luck than Harry Potter on a 'luck potion'.

Up the Addicks!


newyorkaddick said...

KHA, the consensus seems to be that we have a poor squad that needs strengthening, but why it is so poor? We've spent some money (Benson, Wright-Phillips), we've added higher-division loans to the payroll (Martin, Eccleston, Bessone, Fry), and we've had legacy players from the Championship on high wages (Semedo, Racon). The rest are the usual ragbag of free transfers and homegrown youngsters.

Surely it must be down to coaching and tactics at the end of the day - it's interesting that Paul Tisdale has only paid a cash transfer fee once in the past five years, yet his team punch well above their weight and play good football doing it.

Kings Hill Addick said...


Maybe you are right, maybe with the right coaching this team will be good enough, but in 30 plus games we have failed to look impressive at home yet, and have only managed two big wins away from home.

I guess Im starting to sound like Pardew - we need more players blah, blah, blah, I just haven't seen sufficient talent on the field. BWP and Ecclestone do look the real deal, but it can't be for nothing that Reid, Jackson, Doherty, McCormack and Fortune were available on a free last summer?

The younger players are always going to be inconsistant, I accept that, but in truth the players are just not good enough, as a team, to play attractive, passing football (McCormack, for example doesn't seem able to trap the ball closer than four foot away) and we don't seem willing to go the whole hog and play total long ball.

I think the problem recently has been a desire to find a system that includes all the decent players we have (too many forwards) two of which have been added since the new owners have come in.

If what is required is a total rethink on the training field then my comment about wasting the 'gifted' start Powell had is even more relevant. Based, however, on what we have seen so far we are as far away from success now as we ever were under Parkinson.

For reference I don't actually rate some of the players we have had (and still have) on high wages. To that end I think they are overpaid rather than more talented than we are seeing.