Friday, 14 March 2008

Next... Ipswich away

I didn't write a blog following the defeat at Burnley, partly because I was away on business and as I do that very infrequently I'm not set up to do so, but mainly as I wasn't there and as such had very little to say about it.

The fact that we lost our last two games and that the performance on Saturday was so poor I have also lost a little bit of enthusiasm as I seem to be writing the same thing every other post. Half the posts are about us winning and we're back on track then within a week I'm looking for hope after another defeat. I now believe that to secure enough points we are going to need back to back wins, which is something that we have failed to do for over three months.

Ipswich are fantastic at home, they are also one of the teams that we realistically need to finish above, they are also one of the teams that can catch us if they win their game in hand and they got spanked 4-1 at Barnsley midweek.

Before Bristol City I predicted all three eventualities so that I could claim to be right after the event. I have no interest in being right this week, we just mustn't lose. It would be wrong to suggest that we are out of it if we lose tomorrow, but it is likely that it would make the job very difficult for a team so out of form. We have been talking about needing increasingly better runs to make the top two over the last six weeks, but the play offs have always seemed 'safe', suddenly we are in a scrap for them too.

I suggested that we had four six-pointers before the end of the season, we have, so far, played one and lost one, but as the other teams all around us (perhaps as there are so many) don't seem to want to go past us we have held on to fifth, and it is still very much in our own hands. Right now we don't need a great run to make it. In fact, with well placed wins we probably don't even need a good run, but I think that without creating too much pressure for tomorrow we really can't afford to lose, and a win (for either side) would be massive in the context of relative positions.

Clearly we could lose our next three games (which is actually very possible) and win the remaining five and still snatch sixth place, but it's not very likely.

So, 4-5-1 and a lucky late winner of someone's backside then?


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